The key points are:
The first half of this year saw good returns, but they were interrupted by a correction into April thanks to US tariffs.
We remain upbeat on a 12-month view but see a high risk of another correction in the next few months.
Seven key charts worth watching are: Trump’s tariffs; business conditions PMIs; long term inflation expectations; inflation; profit growth; the gap between earnings yields and bond yields; and the $US. For now, they are mixed.
The key points are:
While recession fears, worries about US tariffs and war with Iran resulted in volatility, 2024-25 saw another financial year of strong returns helped by central bank rate cuts, economic conditions proving better than feared, and as President Trump paused the worst of his tariffs and Iran fears fizzled.
Share market volatility is likely to remain high given tariff uncertainties, concerns about US debt, geopolitical threats and likely weaker growth and profits. But with Trump likely to pivot towards more market friendly policies and central banks, including the Fed and RBA, likely to cut rates further, investment returns should be reasonable over 2025-26.
However, after three years in a row of 9-10% balanced growth super fund returns, some slowing is likely to a more sustainable pace around 6-7% particularly as share valuations are high.
The key for investors including super fund members is to maintain a long-term strategy and turn down the noise.
Starting the new financial year with intent: Tips for individuals and families
A new financial year presents the perfect opportunity to take stock, reset, and plan with purpose. Much like a new calendar year inspires resolutions, July 1 offers a financial “fresh start” to review your goals, refine your spending, and make sure your finances are working for you.
For individuals and families, starting the financial year with intent can lead to greater clarity, control, and confidence in the months ahead.
Tips for small business success, starting the new financial year with intent
The beginning of a new financial year is the perfect opportunity for small business owners to reset, refocus, and plan for sustainable growth.
It’s a time to take stock of your performance, identify opportunities for improvement, and ensure your financial and operational strategies are aligned with your long-term goals. Starting the year with intent can make all the difference between reacting to challenges and proactively navigating them.
The importance of making a will
As we journey through life, planning for the future becomes increasingly important.
Every adult has the right to control their affairs, whether managing finances or making healthcare decisions. However, as we age, factors such as illness, disability, or unexpected accidents can diminish our ability to handle these responsibilities.
Financial security: four steps to protect your future
Financial stability doesn’t usually come by chance; it requires preparation and strategy. Most of us depend on a steady paycheck, but few consider what would happen if it disappeared suddenly.
Protecting yourself against financial disaster means planning ahead. Here are four key strategies to safeguard your financial future.
Caravanning life in Australia: Top tips for every traveller
Whether you’re downsizing and selling the family home to hit the road full-time, taking a career break for a six to twelve-month lap of Australia, or simply planning a relaxing weekend away, the caravanning lifestyle is booming across the country. With stunning coastal drives, wide open desert plains, and friendly bush retreats, Australia is perfectly suited for exploring on wheels.
From retirees seeking freedom to young families chasing adventure, the reasons for hitching up a van and heading off are as varied as the landscapes you’ll discover.
Stay up-to-date with the tips, news and updates from Advice Evolution and Fintegrity’s latest newsletter.
Preparing your tax return – Find out what a tax return is, what information you’ll need to prepare it and when it’s due.
What is the right amount of life insurance coverage: the role of a financial adviser
End of Financial Year: a time for reflection and new opportunity
Read this month’s newsletter here
The key points are:
The US intervention in the war with Iran has substantially increased the risk of disruption to global oil supplies and a deeper impact on share markets.
But predicting how this will all unfold is hard. The key is to stay focussed on the basic principles of successful investing.
These five charts focus on principles of investing critical in times like now: the power of compound interest; don’t get blown off by the cycle; the roller coaster of investor emotion; the wall of worry; and market timing is hard.
The key points are:
US tax cuts point to ongoing budget deficits around 7% of GDP, a rising trend in already very high public debt and a further rise in already record debt interest payments.
While a full-blown US public debt crisis is unlikely, this along with declining foreign investor confidence in US policy making could mean upwards pressure on US bond yields.
In the near-term shares look like they will break to new highs. But the risk of further tariff and US public debt worries driving another bout of weakness is high
It’s possible the $US is losing its ‘safe haven’ status. This means the $A may behave a bit less as a shock absorber in a crisis, meaning more pressure on the RBA to cut rates than might normally be the case.
End of financial year tax and super strategies: what you need to know
As the end of the financial year (EOFY) approaches, it’s an important time to assess your tax position and superannuation strategy. With regulatory changes coming into effect from 1 July, this period offers a timely opportunity to put effective plans in place.
Whether you’re focused on minimising your tax, building retirement savings, or making sure you’re compliant, EOFY is your annual reminder to act—and act smartly.
Even as children, people create this big picture in their minds — a reflection of how they envision their life to be. Whether your big picture is similar to what’s called the Australian Dream (home ownership as the key to a better life) or not depends a lot on your priorities and goals in life.
Retirees working past the age of 70: what to consider
With increasing life expectancy and shifting financial goals, many Australians are choosing to continue working beyond the age of 70.
Whether for financial security, personal fulfilment, or social engagement, part-time work in retirement can offer numerous benefits.
Recognising and responding to elder abuse: a community responsibility
Elder abuse is a growing concern in Australia and globally, affecting individuals often aged 55 and over. While many associate abuse with physical harm, it can also be financial, emotional, psychological, or involve neglect.
The reality is that elder abuse often occurs behind closed doors, frequently at the hands of trusted family members, carers, or acquaintances.
Retirement can be a fulfilling and enriching stage of life, even more so when it’s approached with purpose and creativity. For those over 70 who are single, whether by choice, separation, or the loss of a life partner, keeping active, socially engaged, and mentally stimulated becomes even more crucial for emotional well-being and physical health.
Stay up-to-date with the tips, news and updates from Advice Evolution and Fintegrity’s latest newsletter.
Navigating market volatility: smart tips for long-term investors
Make the most of EOFY: super strategies to discuss with your financial adviser
Common misconceptions about life insurance
Read this month’s newsletter here
The key points are:
As widely expected, the RBA cut by 0.25% taking its cash rate to 3.85%. This is the second rate cut in this easing cycle.
The RBA remains “cautious about the outlook”, but its overall commentary appears more dovish leaving the door wide open for further easing.
We expect the RBA to cut again in August, November, and February taking the cash rate to 3.1%. There is now close to a 50% probability of another cut as early as July though.
The ongoing rate cutting cycle should help underpin a modest further pick up in Australian economic growth to around 1.8%yoy, but with the tariff threat posing a big downside risk.
The key points are:
Helped by President Trump’s backdown on tariffs, shares have rebounded to within 3-4% of their record highs.
The good news is that the last month highlights that Trump is still sensitive to share market falls and worries of recession. The bad news is that the tariff mayhem could still flare up again once the 90 day pauses end.
The bigger worry is that his erratic policy making & threats to US institutions could weaken longer term share returns. Against this, though, he is likely to pivot to more positive supply side policies which could work the other way.
Protecting your superannuation after death
You need to tell your super fund who should receive your super and any life insurance when you die. Having a valid binding beneficiary makes it easier and faster for your loved ones to receive your super when you die. Without it, your fund may decide who gets your money.
Update your binding beneficiary
Resist quick decisions when markets drop
It's important not to panic when the price of an investment falls. Before you sell an investment, take the time to review it and see if it still help you to reach your financial goals.
How to keep track of your investments
Keep your super account secure
Your super is your income in retirement. Spot the signs of suspicious activity and contact your super fund if something doesn't look right.
Protect your super from suspicious activity
Welcome to this month's update from Advice Evolution and Fintegrity, where we share the latest insights and developments to keep you informed in today’s evolving landscape.
Navigating a career change with financial confidence
Changing careers is a significant life decision, one that can bring excitement, new opportunities, and challenges.
Whether you’re pursuing a long-held passion, seeking better work-life balance, or adapting to new life circumstances, the transition can have considerable financial implications.
You work hard to build your lifestyle — and protecting it is just as important as creating it. Ensuring your way of life continues, even in the face of unexpected challenges, is a vital part of financial planning.
Life is unpredictable. Illness, injury, or other unforeseen events can disrupt your financial stability and threaten the lifestyle you’ve worked hard to achieve.
Take control of your cashflow with expert financial advice
Imagine feeling completely on top of your finances — knowing your money is working as hard for you as you work for it.
A well-managed cashflow could be the key to achieving that feeling. Cashflow simply refers to the money coming in and going out of your account at any point in time. It is not a measure of wealth, but rather an indicator of whether you have enough money available to meet your expenses, with some left over.
The move to aged care: navigating a stressful and rushed transition
For many Australian families, the decision to move a parent or loved one into aged care often arrives suddenly—prompted by a health crisis, a fall, or the loss of a spouse.
It’s a period marked by emotional strain, urgency, and confusion. The shift into residential aged care can feel overwhelming, particularly as it often involves complex decisions about finances, housing, and family dynamics—all under significant time pressure.
The key points are:
Investment markets are driven by more than just fundamentals. Investor psychology plays a huge role and helps explain why asset prices go through periodic booms and busts & why they can react in extreme ways to events.
The key for investors is to be aware of the role of investor psychology and its influence on them.
The best defence is to be aware of past market cycles (so nothing comes as a surprise) and to avoid being sucked into booms and spat out in busts. If an investor is looking to trade, they should try and buy when the crowd is panicking and sell when it’s euphoric.
Stay up-to-date with the tips, news and updates from Advice Evolution and Fintegrity’s latest newsletter.
Don’t be spooked by sliding super, funds warn members
The importance of life insurance: why we need to be educated before it’s too late
Saving for the future: building financial security
Click here to read the full newsletter
So far, US tariffs are a mixed bag for bonds. But understanding Trump could help investors navigate markets, writes Pendal's Head of Government Bonds, Tim Hext.
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President Trump chose to go hard on tariffs, defying financial markets that thought he would blink. Pendal’s head of equities Crispin Murray dissects the key questions for investors and explains how to respond.
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Liberation day or ‘T-day’ (Tariffs not Trump) was 2 April 2025. And it was a big day.
History of tariffs - Why is the US is raising tariffs?
Since the end of WW2, the US has significantly dropped tariffs to allow the world to recover, and then grow, based on the US economy and consumer engine. The proposed tariffs could take effective rates back to the start of the 1900s. This would be the most painful for countries that have large exports to the US. Plus, for many of these countries, they have not contributed their fair share to NATO while relying on the US to defend them. Now, they have to increase their defense spend and face tariffs, and the combination of those two things has the potential to make a significant negative impact. On the other hand, the US government would look to benefit from these tariffs and be able to pay back some of their debt. However, this will have an impact on inflation and global growth, which will in turn impact markets. With that being said, the impacts will differ by country, sector and company, and that is where active management can uncover opportunity.
Existing US effective tariff rates (custom duty/total imports)
What was announced on 2 April 2025
The tariff announcements were a lot higher than the market anticipated. The good thing is that there should be more clarity, especially around what could be the worst-case scenario, which is what was recently announced in the reciprocal tariffs. This is shown in the list below of recently announced reciprocal tariffs.
Now the stage is set for bilateral negotiations. If those aren’t successful, it will lead to current tariff levels. If successful, it could lead to some lower tariff levels than what is now in market. Given we are unlikely to see the end of this news cycle and policy developments, investors should expect market volatility to remain elevated in the coming days and weeks.
Impacts on different countries
There are clearly both winners and losers emerging, which makes careful stock selection critical to navigating this challenging environment. Our global platform gives us a clear advantage in gathering real-time on-the-ground information and enables us to assess potential opportunities by region with analysts in our offices across the globe. Approximate impact on regions can be seen in the chart below showing imports and exports from the US to various countries across the world.
US liberation day - reciprocal tariffs in focus
Approximately 15 trade partners account for nearly all the trade deficit in the US
As we can see from these illustrations, Australia will only have a 10% tariff with about USD$20bn of exports to the US. And that is before any negotiation. India with 26% on USD$88bn. Pharma, which is a big export, is exempted. IT will be impacted, but the volatility has created opportunities for investment in the sector. Notably for India, as compared to China and other Asian countries, it has fared better and provides them with a competitive advantage over many other Asian countries. These new tariffs could have the biggest impact on China, EU, Mexico, and Canada given the significant amount they export to the US.
Australia: Relatively low impact given lower level of exports to the US and lower tariffs
As we better understand the tariffs, we see that there are different levels of impact. For example, pharmaceuticals are exempted from tariffs so this could have a positive impact for our big pharma manufacturers. For those companies with US based manufacturing, we see this as a net positive, but for those manufacturing in high tariff countries and exporting to the US, this could hurt. Retailers importing from China could potentially get better rates as capacity frees up if we see China exports to the US fall. Added complexity in the global supply chain could benefit those with systems that help ease the additional complexity. The impact on banks could come from lower growth or higher defaults for companies exporting to the US, but no first order impacts from the tariffs. For metals and mining, the impact is more around 2nd order impacts on Chinese growth, based on what impacts the tariff could have. We believe REITS and infrastructure should benefit in a volatile environment. We have an Australian election coming up, which will be a big driver on growth and markets. The election result could also impact outcomes from negotiations with the US government on tariffs. In Australia, we view tariff and election uncertainty as a driver for higher volatility, for now.
In our latest articles from Morningstar and Russell Investments, we delve into the newly introduced tariffs, their potential effects on Australian markets, and how investors can navigate the current market volatility. Gain valuable perspectives from both sources to stay ahead in these uncertain times.
For more insights, click the links below:
Morningstar | Trump’s tariff announcement: Implications for Australian investors
Russell Investments | How to Make Sense of Trump's 'Tough Love' Tariffs
Environmental, social, and governance (ESG) investments are becoming more popular as people become increasingly aware of the need to consider how a company is run when making investment decisions. The goal is to generate financial returns while ensuring a positive social and environmental impact.
However, there are some key challenges that you must consider before making ESG investments, both to protect your return on investment and to ensure you achieve a positive social and environmental impact. In this blog post, we’ll explore these challenges in more detail — keep reading to find out what you need to know before making an ESG investment.
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Market volatility can be unsettling, especially when investment portfolios take sudden dips due to unpredictable economic or geopolitical events. Yet, history consistently shows that volatility is a natural part of market cycles, and investors who maintain discipline and patience during turbulent times often reap substantial rewards when markets rebound.
Missing out on these rebounds can significantly diminish long-term potential earnings, effectively locking in losses that might have otherwise recovered.
Read full article: Missing the bounce? Why market patience matters | Advice Evolution